082
AXPZ20 KNHC 041540
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TD 8-E:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 119.9W AT 1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 12 FT WITHIN 60
NM ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13.5N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 118W AND 121W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
08N TO 18N BETWEEN 117.5W AND 124W. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE
SYSTEM MOVING ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FRI, REACHING
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REACHING JUST
BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY WED MORNING, BEFORE STARTING A
WEAKENING TREND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHT-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W N OF 03N, MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
93W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 105W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 09.5N94W TO T.D.
EIGHT-E NEAR 14N119.5W TO 12.5N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 03N E OF
81.5W, AND FROM TO 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 85W AND 96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 96W AND 112W, AND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS N OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL W-NW OF THE AREA ALONG
138W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO W WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINING WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO PUERTO ANGEL, AND
ARE GENERALLY STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT IN SW
SWELL ACROSS THESE WATERS EXCEPT TO 6 FT WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
NORTE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO WESTERN GUERRERO.
MODERATE TOP FRESH NW TO N WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND TO NEAR 13.5N, WHERE SEAS ARE 6-7 FT. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W IS
PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, AND
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND
OAXACA WED AND WED NIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO,
MICHOACAN AND COLIMA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ALONG 86W, AND
IS ENHANCING GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION JUST AHEAD OF
IT, AS WELL AS THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED GAP WINDS AND SW MONSOON FLOW
HAS INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE, LEADING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN, AND ACTIVE CONVECTION
W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 93W. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO
NEAR 89W. LIGHT TO GENTLE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO 01N, WITH GENTLE WINDS S OF 01N. SEAS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT
7 TO 8 FT OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH TUE. EASTERLY
GAP WINDS OFF THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TUE, AND
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH TUE, AND WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 10N. SW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
TODAY. ANOTHER PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TUE THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
NEWLY DEVELOPED TD 8-E. SEAS TO 8 FT SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM
PREVAIL WITHIN 240 NM E AND 180 NM W OF THE CENTER.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE AS IT HAS SHIFTED W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N141W.
STRONG WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT ARE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, W OF
138W, WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 14 FT. ELSEWHERE, A 1026 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N138W. OUTSIDE OF THE GIL
REMNANTS AND TD 8-E, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL N
OF 20N AND W OF 127W, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE
WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THE GIL REMNANTS AND TD 8-E,
SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND EASTERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 14.9N 121.7W LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO
15.9N 124.1W TUE MORNING, GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 60 KT NEAR
17.7N 129.1W WED MORNING, THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY AFTERWARDS,
REACHING NEAR 18.9N 135.1W THU MORNING. CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL WILL EXIT THE AREA WATERS TO THE W
TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
STRIPLING
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