543
AXPZ20 KNHC 042100
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE:
NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N
120.6W AT 2100 UTC, MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 13
FT WITHIN 60 NM ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 119.5W AND
122.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07.5N TO
18N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
MOVING ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FRI, PEAKING AT AROUND
50 KT TUE THROUGH THU, BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND, AND
CROSSING 140W EARLY FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHT-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 87W N OF 03N, MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD TO OFFSHORE OF
COLOMBIA, AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO OFFSHORE OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 106W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N73W TO 11N80W TO 08N87W TO
13N116W, THEN RESUMES FROM 12N124W TO 11.5N131W. THE ITCZ THEN
EXTENDS FROM 11.5N131W TO 14N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 83W, AND
FROM TO 06N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN
101W AND 114W, AND FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL W-NW OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS A BROAD
RIDGE TO NW OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN
IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
NORTE, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS. SEAS RE 5 TO 6 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS EXCEPT TO 7 FT WELL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE. GENTLE NW TO W WIND THEN EXTEND FROM
SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO PUERTO ANGEL, AND BECOME LIGHT BEYOND
120 NM OFFSHORE. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ACROSS THESE WATERS ARE 4 TO 5 FT AND
TO 6 FT OFFSHORE OF TEHUANTEPEC. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED BEYOND 75 NM OF THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
OAXACA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 87W IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
FROM SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, AND
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND
OAXACA WED AND WED NIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO,
MICHOACAN AND COLIMA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ALONG 87W,
AND IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, AND ENHANCING THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 90W. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED GAP
WINDS AND SW MONSOON FLOW HAS INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE,
LEADING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA AND
EXTENDING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AND
ADJACENT SW CARIBBEAN, AND NORTHWESTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF
TEHUANTEPEC. LIGHT TO GENTLE PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO 02N, WITH GENTLE WINDS S OF 02N. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT 7 TO 8 FT SOUTH
OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA, WHERE GUSTY WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS OFF THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TUE, AND SHIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA
TUE EVENING THROUGH WED, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH TUE, AND WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 10N. NEW SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WED, WITH THE NEXT PULSE OF SW SWELL EXPECTED THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE. SEAS TO 8 FT SURROUNDING
THIS SYSTEM PREVAIL WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 180 NM SW OF THE
CENTER.
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL HAVE
SHIFTED W OF THE AREA IN RECENT HOURS. ELSEWHERE, A 1027 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N136W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL N OF 20N AND
W OF 130W, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS
ELSEWHERE N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, AND 7 TO 11
FT SEAS IN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF GIL N OF 20N
AND W OF 135W, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND
EASTERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
W-NW THROUGH FRI, GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 50 KT NEAR
16.3N 124.9W MIDDAY TUE, REACHING 17.6N 130.4W MIDDAY WED, THEN
BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THU, REACHING NEAR 18.4N
136.5W MIDDAY THU. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL
WILL EXIT THE AREA WATERS TO THE W TUE MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM
LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STRIPLING
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