146
WTNT44 KNHC 050239
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEXTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025
1100 PM AST MON AUG 04 2025
DEXTER CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE STORM'S CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY
RAGGED-LOOKING AT THIS TIME AND LACKS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.
SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES USING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
METHODS RANGE FROM 30 KT TO 47 KT. BLENDING THESE VALUES, THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 40 KT, THOUGH A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTS THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION USING
INFRARED IMAGERY, IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS AROUND 050/11 KT.
DEXTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND
MOVE MORE SLOWLY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL RETAIN ENOUGH VERTICAL COHERENCY TO
BE STEERED AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA,
GUIDANCE.
THERE IS NO SIGN THAT THE STRONG SHEAR IN DEXTER'S ENVIRONMENT WILL
ABATE. IN FACT, THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE,
IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AS A
TRUE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. SIMULATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND THE FSU PHASE SPACE PREDICTIONS FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT DEXTER WILL LIKELY MAKE THE TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 36.8N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 37.8N 64.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 40.2N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 41.2N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0000Z 42.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 49.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECASTER PASCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page