147
WTPZ43 KNHC 050239
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 PM HST MON AUG 04 2025
HENRIETTE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
CURVED BANDING BECOMING MORE DEFINED AND A BRIEF BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH
3.0/45 KNOTS, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED
FROM 39 TO 43 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOW AN UPWARD
TREND. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 290 DEGREES, AT 13 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS HENRIETTE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS, A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS, A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
IS ANTICIPATED AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF HAWAII
DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR 160W. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN
26 AND 27C, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT, AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR STAYS LIGHT. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASING, AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS HENRIETTE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH 120 HOURS, HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRIOR TO DAY 5. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE SHIPS AND ICON GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 18.6N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 19.9N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 148.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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