462
AXPZ20 KNHC 050255
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0240 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE:
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 121.9W AT 05/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 14 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN
120W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
08N TO 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 126W. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 55 KT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING,
BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHT-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 87W/88W N OF 03N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7
DAYS. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 107W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N105W TO 12N113W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N125W TO 11N128W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM
11N128W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM TO 05N TO 12N EAST OF 90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N
TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 113W, AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 132W
AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS OFF SW MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF
2-4 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THU. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMERICA FORECAST WATERS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH, AND GENERALLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGHTEN
ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA WED AND WED NIGHT AND
SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND COLIMA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS HELPING
GENERATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND ENHANCING THE SW MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 90W. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED GAP WINDS AND SW
MONSOON FLOW HAS INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE, LEADING TO ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE
FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 02N, WITH GENTLE WINDS S OF 02N.
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS OFF
THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TUE, AND SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA TUE EVENING
THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH TUE, AND WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 10N. NEW SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGIONAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED, WITH THE NEXT PULSE OF SW SWELL
EXPECTED THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE. SEAS TO 8 FT SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM
PREVAIL FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 112W AND 124W.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N145W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL N OF 15N AND W
OF 120W OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE, AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS IN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM
THE REMNANTS OF GIL N OF 20N AND W OF 135W, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8
FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND EASTERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 16.0N
123.7W TUE MORNING, 16.9N 126.4W TUE EVENING, 17.5N 129.2W WED
MORNING, 18.0N 132.0W WED EVENING, 18.3N 135.0W THU MORNING, AND
18.6N 138.0W THU EVENING. HENRIETTE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 19.9N 143.5W LATE FRI. A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS IS PRODUCING A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page