556
WTNT44 KNHC 050842
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEXTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025
500 AM AST TUE AUG 05 2025
DEXTER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME TOTALLY EXPOSED THIS MORNING- A CONSEQUENCE OF CONTINUED
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
FALLEN SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS DEXTER BATTLES THE
SHEAR. WHILE NORMALLY THE STORM WOULD JUST DECAY AFTER THE WATERS
BECOME COOLER IN A COUPLE DAYS, MOST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE TO A FAVORABLE TROUGH INTERACTION. THIS WAS
FIRST SHOWN BY THE ECMWF YESTERDAY, AND NOW OTHER MODELS ARE ON
BOARD. THE SHORT-TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WAS LOWERED BASED ON THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED, AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LONGER-TERM
INTENSITIES.
THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION IN A FEW DAYS.
THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, MOSTLY IGNORING
THE SLOW GFS SOLUTION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 36-48 H, AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DECAY INTO A TROUGH IN
ROUGHLY 4-5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 37.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 38.2N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 39.9N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 40.6N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 43.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 46.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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