557
WTPZ43 KNHC 050842
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
1100 PM HST MON AUG 04 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HENRIETTE HAS DEGRADED SOME SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE CURVED BAND
STRUCTURE BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 3.0/45 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED FROM 37 TO 46 KT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE, A TIMELY 05/0545Z METOP-C
ASCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL 40-45 KT WIND BARBS, ASSISTING WITH
DETERMINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF THE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT 45 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 290 DEGREES, AT 13 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AS HENRIETTE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS, A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS, A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF HAWAII
ERODES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST HCCA/TVCE/FSSE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER
BETWEEN 26 AND 26.5C, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT, AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STAYS LIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THEN THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATER BUT CLOSE TO THE 26C ISOTHERM, WHILE SHEAR REMAINS
LIGHT AND THE MID-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. BEYOND 36 HOURS, THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE DECREASING, AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS HENRIETTE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS, HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRIOR TO DAY 5. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE FSSE, WHICH IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 15.9N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.2N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 18.5N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 20.3N 144.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.3N 149.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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