857
AXPZ20 KNHC 050852
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE:
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 123.1W AT 05/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN
122W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
12N TO 20N BETWEEN 121W AND 128W. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY MOVING ON A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 50 KT TODAY AND WED, BEFORE STARTING A
WEAKENING TREND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHT-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W/89W N OF 03N, MOVING
WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WHERE THE WAVE INTERSECTS THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 108W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST AT 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N89W TO 14N112W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N126W TO 12N133W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM
12N133W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM TO 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND
94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
06N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND 114W, AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN
132W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THU. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA FORECAST
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH, AND GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND
OAXACA WED AND WED NIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO,
MICHOACAN AND COLIMA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, HELPING TO GENERATE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TODAY, WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WINDS DOWNSTREAM
THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TODAY, AND SHIFT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA
THIS EVENING THROUGH WED. SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH WED, WITH THE NEXT PULSE OF SW SWELL EXPECTED THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE. SEAS TO 8 FT SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM
PREVAIL FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 117W AND 124W.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N136W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL N OF 15N AND W
OF 120W OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED SW AND
EASTERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 16.5N
125.0W THIS AFTERNOON, 17.2N 127.7W WED MORNING, 17.8N 130.6W WED
AFTERNOON, 18.2N 133.5W THU MORNING, 18.5N 136.5W THU AFTERNOON,
AND 19.0N 139.6W FRI MORNING. HENRIETTE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.3N 144.9W EARLY SAT. LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW
DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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