804
WTPZ43 KNHC 051438
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 AM HST TUE AUG 05 2025
HENRIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVERNIGHT. MODEST
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, EVIDENCE OF A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
TILT WITH HEIGHT IN A 0638 UTC GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND AN
INCREASINGLY INHIBITING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
IMPEDE STRENGTHENING. BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, SAB, AND RECENT CIMSS SATCON
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 46 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 45 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED ADVERSE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, AND
HENRIETTE TRAVERSING SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. ONLY
THE HAFS-B HURRICANE MODEL SUGGESTS AN INCREASE TO 50 KT DURING THE
24-36 HRS. OF COURSE, A 5 KT INCREASE ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION.
BEYOND DAY 3, TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE STIFLING WHILE
HENRIETTE MOVES OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC WATERS.
SUBSEQUENTLY, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS NOTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS HEDGED
TOWARD THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS, AND IS JUST ABOVE THE
DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL AID.
HENRIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
OR 290/13 KT. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 4 WHILE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD,
HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE ECMWF
CONTROL.
HENRIETTE'S WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0839 UTC OCEANSAT-3
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 124.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.9N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.4N 134.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 18.8N 137.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 19.3N 140.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 21.0N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 23.4N 150.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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