006
WTNT44 KNHC 051456
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEXTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 05 2025
DEXTER CONTINUES TO BE IN A WEAKENED STATE THIS MORNING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE
THE WEST OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION, AND CLOUD TOPS WITH THE DEEPER
CONVECTION HAVE WARMED THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
REMAINS 35 KT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TODAY. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
A FAVORABLE TROUGH INTERACTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THUS
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ALTHOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS MODEST
RE-INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY
FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
FORWARD SPEED OF DEXTER, WITH THE GFS REMAINING AN OUTLIER ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD, AND THE ECMWF FASTER. HOWEVER, RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN LOW WITH THESE DETAILS,
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS WELL WITHIN THIS SPREAD. EXPECT
THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY, AND THUS THERE
WAS NO STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST WAS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND CONTINUES TO GIVE LESS WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER GFS.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 36-48 H, AND THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DECAY INTO A TROUGH IN ROUGHLY 4-5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 38.0N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 38.8N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 40.4N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 41.5N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0000Z 42.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 44.4N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 46.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CHENARD/SHIEH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page