543
AXPZ20 KNHC 051602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE: TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED
NEAR 16.4N 124.3W AT 05/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 6.5 M, OR 21 FT. HENRIETTE'S CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM MAINLY IN THE NW
SEMICIRCLE. HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
WHILE THE CYCLONE PASSES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 11.5N91.5W. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM IN THE E
SEMICIRCLE, 330 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 390 NM IN THE NW
QUADRANT. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M, OR 8 FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 91.5W NORTH OF 05N TO CENTRAL
GUATEMALA THROUGH 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11.5N AS DESCRIBED
MORE ABOVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 KT.
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 109W, FROM 05N TO 16N WELL OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 102W AND
107W, FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W, AND ALSO FROM 06N
TO 14.5N BETWEEN 112W AND 115.5W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF PANAMA IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA TO ALONG THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 11.5N91.5W TO 11.5N109W TO 11N130W TO BEYOND
12N140W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W,
FROM 04.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 86W, AND FROM 07N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AS WELL AS WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT TO 7 FT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT
PREVAIL. ACTIVE CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS NEAR AND
OFFSHORE SW MEXICO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY FRI, LOCALLY FRESH NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA WED NIGHT. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE,
INCREASING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG THU NIGHT INTO FRI. LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA FORECAST WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
15 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA WED AND
WED NIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND COLIMA
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU, SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BUILDING SEAS WILL RESULT FROM AND ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS. MEANWHILE, FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, HELPING TO GENERATE
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
WINDS ARE LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THIS LOW, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS
WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN
MEXICO BY LATE WED WITH INCREASING WINDS TO AT LEAST FRESH TO
STRONG AND BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLE WITH IT BEFORE IT EXITS. FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. SW SWELL WILL ENTER THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
WED, WITH THE NEXT PULSE OF SW SWELL EXPECTED THU. LITTLE CHANGE
IN HEIGHTS IS FORECAST WITH THESE SETS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, AND ON LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE WATERS NEAR 33N142W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF
OF 13N AND WEST OF 120W OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF
HENRIETTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE
OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN
MIXED S TO SW AND NE TO E SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 16.9N 126.3W THIS
EVENING, 17.5N 129.1W WED MORNING, 18.0N 132.0W WED EVENING,
18.4N 134.9W THU MORNING, 18.8N 137.9W THU EVENING, AND THEN WEST
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AT 19.3N
140.8W FRI MORNING. HENRIETTE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 21.0N
146.1W EARLY SAT. WINDS MAY FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL WATERS BEGINNING WED, GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF
INCOMING S TO SW SWELLS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LEWITSKY
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