561
AXPZ20 KNHC 052203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 5 2025
CORRECTED TO ADD GALE WARNING FOR INVEST EP91 IN SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 125.6W AT
05/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 6.0
METERS, OR 19 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED PRIMARILY IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER. HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
AND THE LATEST HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC
ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (INVEST EP91): SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 09.5N91.5W AT 1010 MB HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 88W AND 99.5W. CURRENT ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT AND BUILDING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93.5W NORTH OF 08N TO MEXICO
NEARING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT.
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE NEARBY LOW PRESSURE AREA,
INVEST EP91, ABOVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 109.5W, FROM 05N TO 16N WELL
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, MOVING SLOWLY WEST AT AROUND 5
KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF PANAMA IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA TO ALONG THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO
09N90W TO 13.5N120W, THEN RESUMES SW OF HENRIETTE NEAR 14N128W TO
BEYOND 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N
TO 11N BETWEEN 107.5W AND 116W, AND FROM 16N TO 20.5N BETWEEN
104W AND 109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
09.5N91.5W WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL. ACTIVE
CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS NEAR AND OFFSHORE SW MEXICO
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY FRESH NEAR
PUNTA EUGENIA WED NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, INCREASING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
09.5N91.5W WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ZONES. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
EXCEPT A BRIEF SURGE OF MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THU NIGHT. A NEW SET OF S TO SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT, GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY BUILDING
SEAS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, AND ON LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91,
OFFSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 09.5N91.5W WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE WATERS NEAR 34N142W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 15N
TO 28N AND WEST OF 122W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE IN
THE 5-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED S TO SW AND NE TO E SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, OTHER THAN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, HENRIETTE
WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 127.7W WED MORNING, 17.9N 130.4W WED
AFTERNOON, 18.4N 133.3W THU MORNING, 18.8N 136.3W THU AFTERNOON,
19.4N 139.4W FRI MORNING, AND THEN WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN NEAR 20.1N 142.2W BY FRI AFTERNOON.
HENRIETTE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WELL INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEARING 22.3N 147.4W SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAY FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS
BY WED NIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF INCOMING S TO SW
SWELLS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
LEWITSKY
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