612
WTNT44 KNHC 060240
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEXTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 05 2025
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER DEXTER. ALTHOUGH
VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM WITHIN THE CIRCULATION,
THIS ACTIVITY IS PERSISTENTLY DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAIN RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING
WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 35 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER, BUT SINCE THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED
SINCE EARLIER TODAY, THE INTENSITY IS NOT INCREASED ON THIS
ADVISORY.
DEXTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR AROUND
060/10 KT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
A BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AN UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED PASS
JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS, AND DEXTER WILL
PROBABLY ACCELERATE A LITTLE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
AS DIAGNOSED BY THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TYPICALLY THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, DEXTER IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC
FORCING, WHILE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 38.9N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 40.0N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 41.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 42.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1200Z 44.0N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0000Z 44.7N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 45.8N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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