565
WTPZ43 KNHC 060244
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HENRIETTE HAD REMAINED RATHER RAGGED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, HOWEVER, A NEW BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 3.0/45 KT AND
2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY. MEANWHILE, THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED FROM 34 TO 47 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
EARLIER TODAY, A 05/1815Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL 45 KNOT
WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND A 05/2133Z AMRS2
PASS REVEALED A NICE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN HELD AT
45 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 290 DEGREES, AT 14 KT. A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION
THEN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HENRIETTE IS STEERED BY
A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS, A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF HAWAII ERODES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE WILL REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 24C AND THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES BELOW 50
PERCENT. DESPITE THE COOLING WATER AND DRYING MID-LEVELS, THE LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE WELL-ESTABLISHED INNER CORE SHOULD
KEEP HENRIETTE RATHER RESILIENT IN THE VERY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR
SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, AND IF THE CYCLONE MANAGES TO SURVIVE THE
TRIP OVER THE COOLER WATER AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS,
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE IVCN
INTENSITY AID.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 17.6N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.9N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.3N 132.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 18.6N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 19.0N 138.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 19.6N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 20.5N 143.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 22.8N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 25.1N 153.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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