730
AXPZ20 KNHC 060312
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0250 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 126.9W AT
06/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 19 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 125W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. HENRIETTE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH WED EVENING
BEFORE STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (INVEST EP91):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CURRENT ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 92.5W NORTH OF 03N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE, CENTERED NEAR 10.5N92.5W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 112W, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 TO
15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N95W TO 08N104W TO
13N116W. IT RESUMES FROM 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN
86W AND 101W, FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 115W, AND FROM
05N11N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
(INVEST EP91) WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH GAP WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3
FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS LOW STARTING THURSDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND
OAXACA WED AND WED NIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO,
MICHOACAN AND COLIMA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU, SHIFTING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUILDING SEAS WILL
RESULT FROM AND ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY FRESH NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA
WED NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE, INCREASING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. FRESH
NORTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS NEAR EP91, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES. SEAS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, OW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR MAY INCREASE
WHILE SEAS BUILD BEFORE IT SHIFTS WEST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WED. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, EXCEPT A BRIEF SURGE OF
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THU NIGHT. A NEW
SET OF S TO SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS WED AND WED
NIGHT, GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, AND ON INVEST EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE WATERS NEAR 34N141W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF 15N
AND WEST OF 122W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE IN THE
5-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 17.9N
129.1W WED MORNING, 18.3N 132.1W WED EVENING, 18.6N 135.1W THU
MORNING, 19.0N 138.1W THU EVENING, AND WEST OF THE AREA NEAR
19.6N 141.0W FRI MORNING. WINDS MAY FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS BY WED NIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
A SET OF INCOMING S TO SW SWELLS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AL
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