656
WTPZ43 KNHC 060853
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUING, PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE’S
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 34 AND 46 KT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A TIMELY 06/0525Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
REVEALED SEVERAL 40–45 KT WIND BARBS NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY REMAINS
45 KT.
HENRIETTE HAS RECENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE WEST, OR 280 DEGREES, AT 13
KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. BY AROUND 72 HOURS, A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF HAWAII BEGINS TO ERODE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND
REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THIS PERIOD, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 24C, WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS BELOW 50 PERCENT.
DESPITE THESE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, HENRIETTE’S BROAD
CIRCULATION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED INNER CORE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY RESILIENT IN THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ONLY
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FOLLOWED BY
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN. IF THE SYSTEM
MANAGES TO ENDURE THE COOLER WATERS, AS PERSISTENTLY SUGGESTED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS, SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 17.8N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.1N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.7N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 19.2N 139.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 19.9N 142.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 20.9N 145.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 23.3N 149.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.1N 154.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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