582
WTNT44 KNHC 060856
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEXTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025
500 AM AST WED AUG 06 2025
DEXTER CONTINUES TO HAVE VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, PARTIALLY OBSCURING ITS LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS HAD SOME
RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS BETWEEN 40 TO 42 KT. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO GENERALLY
RISE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF 30 TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT, IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS RANGE AND CLOSEST
TO THE UW-CIMSS DPRINT ESTIMATE.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. DEXTER SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES UNTIL INTERACTING WITH A
TROUGH TO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
ACCELERATE DEXTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, THOUGH MODELS HAVE SOME
ALONG TRACK SPREAD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND LIES CLOSEST TO THE SIMPLE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AIDS.
DEXTER HAS ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OR SO AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 H. HOWEVER, MODELS
CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH TO NORTH IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD STRENGTHEN DEXTER WHILE IT UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SEVERAL MODELS DURING THE 36 TO 60 H
TIME FRAME SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE-FORCE. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED TO A PEAK OF 60 KT AT 48 H, VERY
NEAR THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID, HCCA. THERE REMAINS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD
BE NEED IN FUTURE ADVISORIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 39.4N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 39.8N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 40.6N 54.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 41.9N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/0600Z 43.2N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/1800Z 44.5N 42.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 45.2N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 46.0N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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