188
AXPZ20 KNHC 060904
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0850 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 128.2W AT
06/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 19 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
126W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
15N TO 21N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (INVEST EP91):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CURRENT ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 20 TO
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THU IN ANTICIPATION OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 94.5W NORTH OF 03N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE, CENTERED NEAR 11.5N94.5W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 113W, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 TO
15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 11.5N94.5W TO 08N104W
TO 13N117W. IT RESUMES FROM 13N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 93W AND 100W, FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 117W, AND
FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP91, WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE WATERS S OF
THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH EP91. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN
THE 5-7 FT RANGE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS LOW STARTING THURSDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND
OAXACA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO,
MICHOACAN AND COLIMA TONIGHT THROUGH THU, SHIFTING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUILDING SEAS WILL
RESULT FROM AND ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY FRESH NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA
TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. FRESH NORTHERLY
SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
INVEST EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
ASIDE FROM CONDITIONS NEAR EP91, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ZONES. SEAS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR MAY INCREASE WHILE SEAS BUILD
BEFORE IT SHIFTS WEST INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, EXCEPT A BRIEF SURGE OF MODERATE TO
FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THU NIGHT. A NEW SET OF S TO
SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT,
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, AND ON INVEST EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE WATERS NEAR 35N141W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF 15N
AND WEST OF 123W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE IN THE
5-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 18.1N
130.4W THIS AFTERNOON, 18.4N 133.4W THU MORNING, 18.7N 136.4W THU
AFTERNOON, 19.2N 139.4W FRI MORNING, THEN WEST OF THE DISCUSSION
WATERS NEAR 19.9N 142.3W FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY FRESHEN SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS BY TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF INCOMING S TO SW SWELLS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND
SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AL
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