546
WTPZ43 KNHC 061457
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 AM HST WED AUG 06 2025
HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS MORNING. IT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH COLD CLOUD
TOPS PRESENT MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BASED ON
OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA AND THE LACK OF NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN
HENRIETTE'S STRUCTURE SINCE THAT TIME.
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. HENRIETTE
IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC. IN A FEW DAYS, A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL TURN HENRIETTE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST, TAKING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII. THE
VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS
FAIRLY HIGH.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER COOL SSTS NEAR 24C. HOWEVER, ONCE
HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF HAWAII, IT WILL MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS.
UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE IS MUCH HIGHER, INCLUDING BOTH HAFS MODELS, WHICH SHOW
HENRIETTE DEVELOPING A ROBUST INNER CORE BY 120 H. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT DAY 4 OR 5 MAY BE NEEDED
WITH FUTURE ADVISORIES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 18.1N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.3N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 18.6N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.6N 141.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 20.4N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 21.5N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 151.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 27.5N 155.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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