717
AXPZ20 KNHC 061558
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 129.7W AT
06/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 15
NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND 135 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HEADING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR
TOMORROW, BUT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (INVEST EP91): SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
17N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W. CURRENTLY, ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 20 TO
35 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 KT, PARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, INCLUDING GALE WARNINGS,
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIATWOEP.SHTML
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 96.5W NORTH OF 04N TO OAXACA,
MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE, INVEST EP91, AND IS DESCRIBED ABOVE
ALONG WITH NEARBY CONVECTION.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 115W FROM 01N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AT 10N76W TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, NEAR 12.5N96.5W, TO
08N100W TO 14N121W, THEN RESUMES SW OF HENRIETTE FROM 12N131W TO
BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 99W AND 109W, AND
FROM 05.5N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 109W AND 118.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 07.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON AN
UPCOMING STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP91, WITH A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS ARE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE WATERS SOUTH OF THERE INTO AN AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG ASSOCIATED WITH EP91. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS LOW. GALE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT, INCREASING TO STORM FORCE
THU EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, EASTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND COLIMA
TONIGHT THROUGH THU, SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. BUILDING SEAS WILL RESULT FROM AND ACCOMPANY THESE
WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI,
LOCALLY FRESH NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CENTRAL PORTION THU NIGHT, THEN THE
NORTHERN PORTION EARLY FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP91, WHICH IS WEST OF THE WATERS AND IS
DESCRIBED MORE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL DIMINISH OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR BY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA, EP91,
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING, THEN WILL PULSE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THU NIGHT, RETURNING BY SUN NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, EXCEPT A BRIEF SURGE OF
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. A NEW
SET OF S TO SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT, GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS WHICH WILL
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, AND ON INVEST EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND AN ASSOCIATED STORM WARNING.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS NEAR 35N135W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 15N
TO 27N AND WEST OF 124W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 92W AND 108W. OUTSIDE
OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE
IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 18.3N 132.0W THIS
EVENING, 18.6N 135.0W THU MORNING, 19.0N 138.0W THU EVENING, THEN
MOVING WEST OF THE AREA TO 19.6N 141.1W FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 140W BY LATE FRI. MEANWHILE,
LOW PRESSURE, EP91, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND AN ASSOCIATED STORM WARNING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WITHIN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS, GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF INCOMING S TO SW
SWELLS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
LEWITSKY
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