326
WTPZ43 KNHC 062054
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
1100 AM HST WED AUG 06 2025
HENRIETTE CONTINUES ALONG WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS STRUCTURE. LIKE
6 H AGO, IT IS PRODUCING A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION,
WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS PRESENT MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS JUST ABOVE 40 KT,
WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY, AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR UNDERSAMPLING. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA
WAS ALSO HELPFUL WITH IDENTIFYING THE EXACT POSITION OF HENRIETTE'S
CENTER, WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST OUTSIDE A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE
IN THE SHORT TERM. HENRIETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC. IN A FEW DAYS, A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL TURN HENRIETTE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, TAKING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII. THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST, SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER COOL SSTS NEAR 24C. HOWEVER, ONCE
HENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF HAWAII, IT WILL MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS.
UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST MAY ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.6N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 22.0N 147.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.9N 152.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 28.5N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER SANTOS/D. ZELINSKY
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