130
WTPZ44 KNHC 062054
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
300 PM CST WED AUG 06 2025
ONE-MINUTE GOES-E VISIBLE IMAGERY, MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE
SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURES, AND THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FINAL-T OF 2.0. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED PEAK WINDS BETWEEN
30-35 KT, SO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM IVO,
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
IVO HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION, BUT IT'S EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE
THAT WIND SHEAR COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR IVO'S INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE TROPICAL STORM IS IN AN
OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS IVO REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THERE IS ABOUT 30 KT OF
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
IVO IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 KT. A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD STEER
IVO PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND, CAUSING IVO TO MOVE
AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED, BUT BY THEN IVO WILL REACH COOLER SSTS
AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN AND TURN WESTWARD, STEERED PRIMARILY BY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, VERY CLOSE TO HCCA THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO, HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
ROUGH SURF ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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