603
AXPZ20 KNHC 062153
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 131.3W AT
06/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY UP TO AROUND 6.5 M, OR 21
FT. HENRIETTE IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE ONLY. HENRIETTE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HENRIETTE IS THEN FORECAST
TO START A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN, KEEPING THE CENTER WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM IVO, PREVIOUSLY INVEST EP91, IS CENTERED NEAR
14.2N 99.1W AT 06/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
JUST BELOW 4 M, OR 11 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 107W. IVO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
GENERALLY PARALLEL, BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN TURN WESTWARD, MOVING FURTHER FROM
LAND. WHILE IVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO,
MICHOACAN AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IVO IS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED
BY IVO WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 98W NORTH OF 03N TO NEWLY
NAMED TROPICAL STORM IVO, FORMERLY INVEST EP91, MOVING WESTWARD
AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. PLEASE REFER TO INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM
IVO ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON NEARBY CONVECTION AND MORE DETAILS.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 115.5W FROM 02N TO 19N, MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA AT 12N86.5W TO TROPICAL
STORM IVO TO 08N107W TO 13N124.5W, THEN RESUMES SSW OF TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE NEAR 12N132W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W,
AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 137.5W AND 140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
99W AND 119W, AND FROM 10N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 111W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM IVO, FORMERLY INVEST EP91, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT,
EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 101.9W THU MORNING,
17.2N 105.5W THU AFTERNOON, 18.9N 108.5W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE NEAR 20.0N 111.0W FRI AFTERNOON, 20.7N 113.3W SAT
MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.0N 115.0W SAT
AFTERNOON. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
21.5N 117.6W SUN AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY STRONG
TONIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY
FRESH TO STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CENTRAL PORTION THU NIGHT, THEN MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION EARLY FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 5-7 FT
SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR DUE TO RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM IVO WEST OF THE
WARE AND MOVING AWAY, ALONG WITH RELATED 6-9 FT SEAS. MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL DIMINISH OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR LATER THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM IVO CONTINUES TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING, THEN WILL PULSE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH THU NIGHT, RETURNING BY SUN NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, EXCEPT A BRIEF SURGE OF
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. A NEW
SET OF S TO SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND, DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, AND ON NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM IVO,
FORMERLY INVEST EP91.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
AROUND HENRIETTE, ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF
THE WATERS NEAR 36N137W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 15N TO 27N AND WEST OF 126W.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 93W AND 113W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 18.3N 133.5W THU
MORNING, 18.6N 136.5W THU AFTERNOON, 19.0N 139.5W FRI MORNING,
THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
REACHING 19.7N 142.5W FRI AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING, WHILE LINGERING SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY
EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE, IVO WILL MOVE TO 15.4N 101.9W THU MORNING,
17.2N 105.5W THU AFTERNOON, 18.9N 108.5W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE NEAR 20.0N 111.0W FRI AFTERNOON, 20.7N 113.3W SAT
MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.0N 115.0W SAT
AFTERNOON. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
21.5N 117.6W SUN AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF INCOMING S TO SW SWELLS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND
SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LEWITSKY
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