550
WTPZ43 KNHC 070234
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2025
HENRIETTE’S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE CYCLONE NOW NEARLY DEVOID OF ALL DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FULLY EXPOSED. THE MOST RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB,
WHILE SAB DEEMED THE CYCLONE TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. MEANWHILE,
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED FROM 37 TO 51 KT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN EARLIER 06/1755Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED NUMEROUS 40 KT WIND BARBS, WITH A SINGLE 40–45 KT WIND BARB
NOTED NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED, AT PERHAPS A
GENEROUS, 45 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 275 DEGREES, AT 14 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS
HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF
HAWAII BEGINS TO ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE CENTER OF
HENRIETTE WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOWERING TO NEAR 24C, WHILE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ALSO FALLS BELOW 50 PERCENT. DESPITE THESE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, HENRIETTE’S WELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN RESILIENT DUE TO THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE TRANSITING THROUGH. AS A RESULT, ONLY SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, FOLLOWED BY
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HOURS. IF HENRIETTE CAN
SURVIVE THE PASSAGE OVER THE COOLER WATERS, AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, RE-INTENSIFICATION
APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO LEVELS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS, BRINGING HENRIETTE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 120 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY
UNCHANGED AND REMAINS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AID HCCA AND THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 18.2N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 18.3N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.7N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.2N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 143.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.1N 146.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 22.5N 149.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 25.5N 153.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 29.0N 157.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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