183
WTPZ44 KNHC 070240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
900 PM CST WED AUG 06 2025
IVO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED. VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEG C OR COLDER ARE EVIDENT, PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 35 KT FOR NOW, IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND MOST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS.
BLENDING CENTER FIXES FROM SAB AND TAFB GIVE A SWIFT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF AROUND 295/19 KT, AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS A STRONG 500 MB HIGH SITUATED TO THE
NORTH OF IVO, WHICH IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. BEYOND 24-36 HOURS, IVO SHOULD TURN A BIT
TO THE LEFT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IVO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR, FAIRLY WARM WATERS AND HIGH LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND THE
SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE THIS WEEK. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRAVERSING COOLER
WATERS WHICH IS LIKELY TO REDUCE THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO, HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
ROUGH SURF ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.3N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.2N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.7N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.4N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 20.8N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 21.0N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 21.4N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PASCH
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