067
AXPZ20 KNHC 070312
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0250 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 132.4W AT
07/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 20 FT. HENRIETTE IS
A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
AND THE LATEST HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC
ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 100.9W AT 07/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 12 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 96W AND
107W. IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE GENERALLY PARALLEL, BUT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THEN TURN WESTWARD, MOVING FURTHER
FROM LAND. WHILE IVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, HEAVY
RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IVO IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST IVO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH TS IVO HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM
THE SURFACE MAP.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 116W FROM 02N TO 19N, MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 08.5N114W TO 14N128W.
IT RESUMES FROM 13N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W
AND 120W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT,
EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM IVO WILL MOVE TO 16.3N 103.6W
THU MORNING, 18.2N 107.0W THU EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 19.7N 109.8W FRI MORNING, 20.4N 112.1W FRI EVENING, 20.8N
114.0W SAT MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.0N
115.4W SAT EVENING. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR 21.4N 118.0W LATE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY
STRONG TONIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI,
LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CENTRAL PORTION THU NIGHT, THEN MOVE TO
THE NORTHERN PORTION EARLY FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH
6-8 FT SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR DUE TO TROPICAL STORM IVO WEST OF THE AREA, ALONG
WITH SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, THEN WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO
FRESH THROUGH THU NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N OF 02N THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, EXCEPT A BRIEF SURGE OF MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT. S OF 02N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. A NEW SET OF S TO SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
WATERS TONIGHT, SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE AND TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
AROUND HENRIETTE, ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF
THE WATERS NEAR 36N137W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS FROM 16N TO 30N AND WEST OF
126W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT
FOR FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 96W AND 110W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS NEAR 18.2N 132.4W
AT 8 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1004 MB. HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 18.3N 134.8W THU MORNING,
18.7N 137.9W THU EVENING, THEN MOVE W OF THE AREA 19.2N 141.0W
FRI MORNING. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY FRI EVENING, WHILE
LINGERING SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE, IVO WILL
MOVE TO 16.3N 103.6W THU MORNING, 18.2N 107.0W THU EVENING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 19.7N 109.8W FRI MORNING, 20.4N
112.1W FRI EVENING, 20.8N 114.0W SAT MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.0N 115.4W SAT EVENING. IVO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.4N 118.0W LATE
SUN. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS, GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF
INCOMING S TO SW SWELLS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AL
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