472
WTPZ44 KNHC 070844
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
300 AM CST THU AUG 07 2025
IVO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THAT OF A STORM THAT IS STEADILY
INTENSIFYING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY FORMING WHILE
THE CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST HAS BEEN EXPANDING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0412 UTC REVEALED A
DUBIOUS, AT BEST, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT
EVEN THOUGH THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION APPEARS ROBUST, THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW HAS YET TO REFLECT SUCH ORGANIZATION, LIKELY DUE TO IVO'S RAPID
FORWARD MOTION. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA.
THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/20 KT. IVO IS RACING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVING PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. AROUND 36 H, IVO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW
DOWN. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
IVO IS STILL FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THEN NEXT DAY OR
SO. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY CONDITIONS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. IVO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER COOLER WATERS BY 72 H, WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT
INCREASING SHEAR WILL SEPARATE THE CYCLONE FROM DEEP CONVECTION AND
IVO IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96 H. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IVO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO, HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND
ROUGH SURF ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OUTER BANDS OF IVO ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN DE OCAMPO AND COLIMA THROUGH FRIDAY. FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 15.9N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 20.7N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 20.9N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 21.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BUCCI
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