652
WTPZ43 KNHC 071454
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 AM HST THU AUG 07 2025
HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO HANG IN THERE DESPITE STRADDLING 25 C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTER, THOUGH
OVERALL THE APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL RATHER RAGGED
LOOKING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS NOT CHANGED
FOR 12 UTC AT 45 KT. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS VALUE AND EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45
KT THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, OR 280 DEGREES AT 14
KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL BECOME
GRADUALLY ERODED BY A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC IN 2-3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY
A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THIS FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
HENRIETTE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER COOL OCEAN WATERS, WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL TO 24C OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. WHILE IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING OVER THE SHORT
TERM, THE STORM HAS PROVEN TO BE RESILIENT THUS FAR. ANOTHER
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES,
WHICH ARE COLDER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE STORM'S WEST. THIS TROUGH MIGHT HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME
CONVECTION OVER WHAT WOULD ORDINARILY BE WATERS TOO COOL TO ALLOW
SUCH ACTIVITY TO PERSIST. ONCE HENRIETTE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER WARMER
OCEAN WATERS AGAIN IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WEST OF 150W, THE OTHER
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, AND
INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IN FACT, HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 96-120 H WELL TO THE
NORTH OF HAWAII. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE PRIOR ADVISORY, THOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME GUIDANCE
AIDS THAT ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN THE NHC FORECAST AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD (HAFS-B).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 18.6N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.0N 137.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.5N 140.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.2N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.4N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 22.7N 148.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 24.3N 151.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 28.0N 155.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 31.5N 160.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN
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