362
AXPZ20 KNHC 071602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 104.4W AT 07/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 4 METERS, OR 12 FEET. NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN
99W AND 110W. IVO IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST . THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF,
THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND TURN WESTWARD AWAY
FROM MEXICO THEREAFTER. EVEN THOUGH IVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE, HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN DE OCAMPO AND COLIMA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST IVO NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 135.5W AT 07/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
HENRIETTE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. HENRIETTE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE CENTER WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE -HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
THE LATEST HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 118W FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT AROUND 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N98W TO 07N119W TO
09N126W. IT RESUMES FROM 12N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
92W AND 98W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER EXCEPT TO FRESH OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM IVO WILL MOVE TO 17.3N 105.8W
THIS AFTERNOON, 18.9N 108.9W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 20.0N 111.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 20.6N 113.5W SAT
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.7N 115.0W SAT
AFTERNOON, AND 20.9N 116.5W SUN MORNING. IVO WILL BECOME POST-
TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.3N 119.5W EARLY MON. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY
FRI. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CENTRAL PORTION TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN PORTION EARLY FRI INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 6-7 FT
SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 02N. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF 02N. OUTSIDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT, THEN GENTLE TO MODERATE AFTERWARDS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS N
OF 02N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. S OF 02N, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A SET OF S TO SW SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE AND TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
AROUND HENRIETTE, ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF
THE WATERS NEAR 36N145W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS N OF 17N AND WEST OF 130W. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS NEAR 18.4N 133.9W
AT 2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1004 MB. HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 18.6N 136.2W THIS AFTERNOON,
19.1N 139.3W FRI MORNING, AND WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
19.8N 142.3W FRI AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, IVO WILL MOVE TO 17.3N
105.8W THIS AFTERNOON, 18.9N 108.9W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 20.0N 111.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 20.6N 113.5W SAT
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.7N 115.0W SAT
AFTERNOON, AND 20.9N 116.5W SUN MORNING. IVO WILL BECOME POST-
TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.3N 119.5W EARLY MON ELSEWHERE,
WINDS WILL FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS, GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF INCOMING S TO SW SWELLS WILL
HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN
WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AL
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