334
AXPZ20 KNHC 072114
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 105.8W AT 07/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 5 METERS, OR 16 FT WITH A
LENGTHENING AND PRONOUNCED FETCH ALONG THE COAST OF SW MEXICO.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N
TO 22.5N BETWEEN 101W AND 111.5W. IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IVO IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IVO COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM IVO IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO, MICHOACAN DE OCAMPO AND COLIMA THROUGH FRI. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. SWELLS GENERATED
BY IVO WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 136.8W AT 07/2100
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 6 AND 6.5 METERS, OR 19.5
AND 21.5 FT. HENRIETTE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN THE
CENTER AND 139.5W. HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING THE CENTER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
THE LATEST HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 119W FROM 02N TO 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA
TO 08.5N90W TO 11.5N98W TO 06.5N123W TO 12.5N130W TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN
77W AND 86W, FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 114W, AND WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 116W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
OUTSIDE OF IVO, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN
PRIMARILY SW SWELL, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO WILL MOVE TO 20.1N 108.2W FRI MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 21.1N 110.9W FRI AFTERNOON, 21.5N
112.8W SAT MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.6N 114.1W
SAT AFTERNOON, 21.7N 115.8W SUN MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW NEAR 21.9N 117.5W SUN AFTERNOON. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 22.5N 121.0W MON AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY
FRI, LOCALLY STRONG LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH EARLY FRI. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CENTRAL PORTION
LATER TONIGHT, THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION EARLY FRI INTO
EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, POSSIBLY
FRESHENING NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH
N SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PER RECENT
ASCAT DATA WITH 5-7 FT SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NEAR
THE AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF
02N. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND OUTSIDE OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 02N, ALONG WITH
5-8 FT SEAS IN NEWLY ARRIVING SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AT TIMES, MAINLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 02N
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF
02N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A SET OF S TO SW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE AND TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
AROUND HENRIETTE, ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
TO E WINDS NORTH OF 16N AND WEST OF 130W. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESHENING
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 100W AND 122W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS
ARE MAINLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL, EXCEPT BUILDING
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 8 FT SOUTH OF 08N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO 19.3N 139.2W FRI MORNING,
THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AND NEAR 19.9N 142.2W FRI
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 140W BY FRI
AFTERNOON, WITH REMNANT SEAS SUBSIDING BY EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE,
IVO WILL MOVE TO 20.1N 108.2W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 21.1N 110.9W FRI AFTERNOON, 21.5N 112.8W SAT
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.6N 114.1W SAT
AFTERNOON, 21.7N 115.8W SUN MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR 21.9N 117.5W SUN AFTERNOON. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 22.5N 121.0W MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF INCOMING S TO SW
SWELLS WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. SEAS MAY BUILD TO
NEAR 8 FT IN FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL ALONG AND NEAR 30N LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LEWITSKY
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