184
WTPZ44 KNHC 080251
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM MST THU AUG 07 2025
WHILE IVO HAS A COMPACT CORE WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION,
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS DISORGANIZED AND LACKS BANDING
FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT, NEAR THE HIGH END OF
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA. SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BRUSHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, LIKELY BRINGING AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. IVO'S TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN
OFFSHORE NEAR THE TINY CORE, AND ARE ESTIMATED TO ONLY EXTEND ABOUT
40 N MI FROM THE CENTER.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST AT 19 KT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, IVO IS
FORECAST TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST WITH A
NOTABLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE IVO AWAY
FROM MAINLAND MEXICO AND WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH WARM SSTS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND HIGH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
IVO MIGHT NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE CONDITIONS GIVEN ITS CURRENT
RAGGED STRUCTURE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY
MODELS WITH THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL AIDS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING WHILE THE GLOBAL AND HAFS GUIDANCE SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND LEANS CLOSER TO THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM, BUT THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT OCCURS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN IVO
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
AIR MASS OF DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SHEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 19.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 21.4N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 21.7N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 22.3N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 22.4N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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