847
WTPZ43 KNHC 080253
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 PM HST THU AUG 07 2025
HENRIETTE’S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY
EXPOSED AND ONLY A FEW SMALL, INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 2.5/35 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE RANGED FROM 28 TO 41 KT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
HENRIETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THIS GENERAL
MOTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HENRIETTE BECOMES
STEERED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF HAWAII
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT HENRIETTE WILL REMAIN FAR
TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII.
HENRIETTE WILL TRAVERSE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 24C WITH
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 50 PERCENT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. DESPITE THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS, THE
CYCLONE’S WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
RESILIENT WITHIN THE PREVAILING LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING FOR
OCCASIONAL PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO PERSIST. AS A RESULT,
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM. IF
HENRIETTE CAN WITHSTAND THE PERIOD OVER COOLER WATERS, AS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW, RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE TO LEVELS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT
INTENSIFICATION, BRINGING HENRIETTE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 96
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, AND IS MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 20.4N 143.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 21.6N 146.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 22.9N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 24.4N 151.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 26.2N 153.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 30.2N 157.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 34.8N 161.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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