853
AXPZ20 KNHC 080324
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 107.3W, OR ABOUT
240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
08/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 16 FT, OR 5
METERS, WITH A LENGTHENING AND PRONOUNCED FETCH ALONG THE COAST
OF SW MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE
SMALL IN ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN, AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN THE
COAST OF MEXICO AND 113W. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, IVO IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY FROM MAINLAND
MEXICO AND PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IVO COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
MICHOACáN DE OCAMPO, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
FRI. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST IVO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 138.4W, OR ABOUT
8850 NM EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AT 08/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 14
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE
TO NEAR 19 FT, OR 6 METERS. HENRIETTE APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A
BIT WITH DRY AIR AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND UPPER-
LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR HAS STARTED TO IMPACT ITS OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN AS ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF THE CENTER TO 20N
BETWEEN 137W AND 139W. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 120W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA
TO 08.5N90W TO 10N100W TO 13N111W, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N122W
AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 13N130W AND TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W-110W, FROM 08N
TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 123W AND
127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO, WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
OUTSIDE OF IVO, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN PRIMARILY SW SWELL, EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 20.7N 109.5W
FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 21.4N 111.6W FRI
EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT, THEM
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 113.1W SAT MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT, AND CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.9N 114.8W SAT EVENING, TO
NEAR 22.1N 116.6W SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.3N 118.6W SUN
EVENING. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
22.4N 122.2W LATE MON. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY FRI, LOCALLY
STRONG LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY FRI. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CENTRAL PORTION
LATER TONIGHT, THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION EARLY FRI INTO
EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, POSSIBLY
FRESHENING NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH
N SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NEAR THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 02N.
SEAS ARE 4-6 FT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 02N, ALONG WITH 5-8 FT SEAS
IN NEWLY ARRIVING SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AT TIMES, MAINLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 02N
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF
02N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A SET OF S TO SW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE AND ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
AROUND HENRIETTE, ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NORTH OF 16N AND WEST OF 130W. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 122W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL,
EXCEPT BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 8 FT SOUTH OF 08N BETWEEN 107W
AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.6N 140.8W FRI
MORNING, THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN NEAR 20.4N 143.8W
FRI EVENING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ASSOCIATED
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 140W BY FRI AFTERNOON, WITH REMNANT
SEAS SUBSIDING BY EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE, IVO WILL MOVE TO NEAR
20.7N 109.5W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 21.4N
111.6W FRI EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85
KT, THEM WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 113.1W SAT MORNING
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT, AND CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.9N 114.8W SAT EVENING, TO
NEAR 22.1N 116.6W SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT
GUSTS 50 KT AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.3N 118.6W SUN
EVENING. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
22.4N 122.2W LATE MON. ELSEWHERE, FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON ROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED
WITH A SET OF INCOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL HELP TO BUILD
SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT IN FRESH
NORTHERLY SWELL ALONG AND NEAR 30N LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AGUIRRE
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