964
AXPZ20 KNHC 080857
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 109.0W, OR ABOUT 155 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
08/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 17 FT, OR 5
METERS, WITH A LENGTHENING AND PRONOUNCED FETCH ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
QUITE SMALL IN ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN, AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER AND NEAR THE CENTER OF IVO, AND
IS RESEMBLING WHAT APPEARS TO BE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
FEATURE. THE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 107W
AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
IVO WITHIN 60 NM OF 18N111W. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
TURN TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED ON SAT, AND THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IVO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND IVO COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 140.1W, OR 850 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AT 08/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE TO NEAR 19
FT, OR 6 METERS. HENRIETTE APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH
DRY AIR AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND UPPER-LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS STARTED TO IMPACT ITS OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AS
ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LIMITED SHALLOW CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TONIGHT
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
HENRIETTE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 122W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA, AND
TO 08N94W, NORTHWESTWARD TO 14N107W TO 13N116W, THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N124W, AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 12N130W AND TO
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 13N
BETWEEN 103W-110W, WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
111W AND 117W AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
93W-95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO, WHICH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT
1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTH OF THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 21.2N 111.0W
THIS AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 21.6N 112.8W LATE
TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 75 KT, THEN
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 114.4W SAT AFTERNOON WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. IVO WILL UNDERGO
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.8N 116.1W LATE SAT
NIGHT, TO NEAR 22.1N 117.9W SUN AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.2N 119.8W LATE SUN NIGHT. IVO WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 22.2N 123.7W LATE MON
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS CROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME MAINLY GENTLE WINDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN
PORTION THIS MORNING INTO EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ELSEWHERE, POSSIBLY FRESHENING NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS TO 8 FT IN FRESH NORTH OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
CHANGE IN SEAS IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NEAR THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 02N.
SEAS ARE 4-6 FT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 02N, ALONG WITH 5-8 FT SEAS
IN NEWLY ARRIVING SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AT TIMES, MAINLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 02N
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF
02N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A SET OF S TO SW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE AND ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY A HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA, EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND AROUND
HENRIETTE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 18N AND WEST OF
130W AS NOTED IN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THIS
PART OF THE AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 122W. OUTSIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE
IN MIXED SWELL, EXCEPT BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 8 FT SOUTH OF
08N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WILL MOVE TO NEAR
19.6N 140.8W FRI MORNING, THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
NEAR 20.4N 143.8W FRI EVENING WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45
KT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 140W BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LEFT OVER SEAS SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
TROPICAL STORM IVO WILL MOVE TO NEAR 21.2N 111.0W THIS AFTERNOON,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 21.6N 112.8W LATE TONIGHT WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 75 KT, THEN WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 114.4W SAT AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. IVO WILL UNDERGO GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.8N 116.1W LATE SAT NIGHT, TO
NEAR 22.1N 117.9W SUN AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR 22.2N 119.8W LATE SUN NIGHT. IVO WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 22.2N 123.7W LATE MON NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON ROUGH
IN THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A SET OF INCOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. SEAS
MAY BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT IN FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL ALONG AND NEAR
30N LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
AGUIRRE
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