761
WTPZ44 KNHC 080916 CCA
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST FRI AUG 08 2025
CORRECTED T-NUMBER IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH
IVO SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING WITHIN THE CORE OF THE
STORM AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED A GROWING
CDO OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL STORM HAS MANAGED TO ELUDE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND NO NEW INFORMATION HAS
BEEN COLLECTED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS CYCLE BASED ON PERSISTENCE,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45
KT.
IVO IS MOVING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AT 295/18 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING THE
STORM TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. IVO IS FORECAST TO STAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
BEYOND THE 24 H FORECAST TIME.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL BRINGS
IVO UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN A DAY, HOWEVER THIS PEAK LIES
ABOVE ALL THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
THE HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE MODEL
AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WHEN IVO MOVES
OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A FEW DAY AND OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 20.4N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 21.7N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.8N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.2N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page