802
WTPZ44 KNHC 081436
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM MST FRI AUG 08 2025
IVO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH ONE SMALL CONVECTIVE BAND
FORMING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB INCREASED TO T3.5/55 KT, HOWEVER THE SAB
ESTIMATE AND ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER. THEREFORE, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.
IVO IS SLOWING DOWN AND NOW HAS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INITIAL MOTION
AT 295/14 KT. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, KEEPING IVO ON
A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.
THE MORE COMPLICATED PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE INTENSITY. IVO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IN
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO. BECAUSE OF THAT, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
SOME STRENGTHENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FORECAST NO LONGER
EXPLICITLY SHOWS IVO BECOMING A HURRICANE, BUT THAT IS STILL A SMALL
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IF IVO IS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN IS BEING
ESTIMATED. BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS, COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES,
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND LESS DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE
THE STORM TO WEAKEN. SOME OF THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
EXACTLY HOW QUICK THAT WEAKENING WILL BE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GFS
MAINTAINS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS,
WHILE THE ECWMF DEGENERATES IVO INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. AS A COMPROMISE, THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS IVO BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL BY 60 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5, IF NOT SOONER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 20.7N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.1N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.3N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 114.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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