576
AXPZ20 KNHC 081552
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 110.1W, OR ABOUT 150
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT
1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED REMAINS
50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 19 FT,
OR 5.8 METERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS SMALL. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 18.5N
TO 21N BETWEEN 108.5W AND 111.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 24.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 112W,
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE WEST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IVO IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY, AND NORTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AND IVO COULD REACH AT OR JUST BELOW HURRICANE-STRENGTH EARLY
SAT. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED
BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND HAVE BEGUN TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN RECENT HOURS, AND ARE
ENTERING INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST IVO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 141.5W, OR 885
NM EAST OF HILO, HAWAII AT 08/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE TO NEAR 16
FT, OR 5 METERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED SHALLOW
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE TO 22N. HENRIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND OVER THE WEEKEND. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/HFO/HSFNP AND THE LATEST HENRIETTE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 122W FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 08N87W TO 14N120W TO 08N126
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02.5N TO
09.5N EAST OF 88W, FROM 06N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 89W AND 101W, FROM
07.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W, AND FROM 09N TO 12N WEST OF
135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION ALONG 142W, AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 118W AND TO THE NW OF IVO.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OF BAJA NORTE, WITH WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 10
KT OR LESS OFFSHORE OF BAJA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT
IN NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FT
ELSEWHERE OFF OF BAJA, EXCEPT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THERE
WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT IN SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM IVO.
INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
ENTERING THE GULF THIS MORNING, AND REACHING THE COASTS OF
NAYARIT AND SINALOA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF, WHILE
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS, WHERE SEAS ARE 4
TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 21.1N 111.7W
THIS EVENING, INTENSIFY TO NEAR HURRICANE-STRENGTH NEAR 21.3N
113.4W SAT MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN, REACHING NEAR 21.3N
114.9W SAT EVENING, AND TO NEAR 21.5N 116.6W SUN MORNING. IVO IS
THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL
NEAR 21.9N 118.3W SUN EVENING, THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL BECOME MAINLY GENTLE WINDS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, POSSIBLY
FRESHENING NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS
TO 8 FT IN FRESH NORTH SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL
SUBSIDE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO WILL
PEAK AROUND 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, AND 6 TO 9 FT IN THE ENTRANCE TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. SEAS THERE WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE SAT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NEAR THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 02N.
SEAS ARE 4-6 FT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 02N, ALONG WITH 5-8 FT SEAS
IN NEWLY ARRIVING SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AT TIMES, MAINLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 02N
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF
02N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A SET OF S TO SW
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS, SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE DECAYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE AND ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N 142W EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND AROUND
HENRIETTE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 18N AND WEST OF 130W
AS NOTED IN OVERNIGHT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA OVER THIS PART OF THE
AREA. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT FOR FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 122W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTE, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL,
EXCEPT BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 8 FT SOUTH OF 08N BETWEEN
107W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND EXIT THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 140W BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LEFT
OVER SEAS SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM IVO
WILL MOVE TO NEAR 21.1N 111.7W THIS EVENING, INTENSIFY TO NEAR
HURRICANE-STRENGTH NEAR 21.3N 113.4W SAT MORNING, THEN BEGIN TO
WEAKEN, REACHING NEAR 21.3N 114.9W SAT EVENING, AND TO NEAR 21.5N
116.6W SUN MORNING. ELSEWHERE, FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON ROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
A SET OF INCOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO
AROUND 8 FT. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT IN FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL
ALONG AND NEAR 30N LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STRIPLING
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