202
AXPZ20 KNHC 082145
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 8 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 111.2W AT 2100 UTC, OR
ABOUT 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 20 FT, OR 6 METERS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SMALL, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTENDING OUTWARD TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM W AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLES.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO
23N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IVO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND PASS NORTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, AND IVO COULD REACH AT OR JUST BELOW
HURRICANE-STRENGTH DURING THIS TIME. WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY SAT NIGHT AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TURN
DETRIMENTAL. SWELL GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, AND
IMPACT BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF AND DANGEROUS
LIFE- THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST IVO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 123W FROM 03N TO 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
04.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 131W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N77W
TO 07N92W TO 14.5N112W TO 06.5N130 TO 11.5N13840W TO 11N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 07N EAST OF
90W, FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 92W AND 102W, FROM 07.5N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 107W AND 115W, AND FROM 10N TO 12N WEST OF 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION ALONG 140W, AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 118W AND TO THE NW OF IVO.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OF BAJA NORTE, WITH WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 10
KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
SUR. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA
NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE OFF OF BAJA, EXCEPT FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6 TO 9
FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS NOW PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS, WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5 TO 7 FT. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 5 TO 7 FT, AND ARE REACHING THE COASTS OF NAYARIT
AND SINALOA. WINDS AREA GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE
FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO ANGEL, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
TO N WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SW
SWELL ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 20.5N 112.5W
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, REACH NEAR 20.7N 114.0W MIDDAY SAT, THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, REACHING NEAR 21.0N 115.7W AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT, AND TO NEAR 21.5N 117.5W MIDDAY SUN. IVO IS THEN EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL NEAR 21.8N
119.4W MIDNIGHT SUN, THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SAT, THEN BECOME GENTLE TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUN. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO WILL PEAK ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN QUICKLY FADE BY LATE SAT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WHERE SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 04N, WHILE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF 04N. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 8 FT IN NEW
SW SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
NORTH OF 04N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOUTH OF 04N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. NEW
CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE FADING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N 140W EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 118W, AND
DRAPES ACROSS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE, LOCATED NEAR 19.9N
143.0W AT 2100 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NORTH OF ABOUT 17N AND WEST OF 130W. SEAS
IN THIS AREA ARE 5 TO 10 FT IN EASTERLY SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE N-NE TO NE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 101W AND 132W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO
9 FT. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO
7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HENRIETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED LEFT OVER SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE THERE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM IVO WILL MOVE
TO NEAR 20.5N 112.5W BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, REACH NEAR 20.7N 114.0W
MIDDAY SAT, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN, REACHING NEAR 21.0N 115.7W
AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT, AND TO NEAR 21.5N 117.5W MIDDAY SUN.
IVO IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AND BECOME POST-
TROPICAL NEAR 21.8N 119.4W MIDNIGHT SUN, THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF
120W THROUGH MON. FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH
S TO SW SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
STRIPLING
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