399
AXPZ20 KNHC 090355
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 112.1W, OR ABOUT 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 09/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 18 FT (5.5 M) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LATEST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS VERY SMALL, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY
EXTENDING OUTWARD TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE SW OF IVO WITHIN A 30 NM WIDE LINE
FROM 19N113W TO 20N115W. A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND. IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUN NIGHT.
SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. IN ADDITION, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST IVO
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 124W FROM 03N TO 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NW COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 09N84W TO 13N100W TO 14N110W TO
14N118W TO 09N130W TO 11N135W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 89W AND 105W AND
FROM 11N TO 15N WEST OF 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION ALONG 140W, AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 118W AND TO THE NW OF IVO.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OF BAJA NORTE, WITH WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 10
KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA SUR. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE
BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE OFF OF BAJA, EXCEPT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6 TO
9 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 5 TO 7
FT, AND ARE REACHING THE COASTS OF NAYARIT AND SINALOA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO
ANGEL, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL ACROSS
THESE AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 20.7N 113.2W
SAT MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT, THEN
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.0N 114.7W SAT
EVENING, TO NEAR 21.5N 116.5W SUN MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.9N 118.6W SUN EVENING, TO NEAR 22.1N
120.7W MON MORNING, THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.1N
123.0W MON EVENING. IVO WILL DISSIPATE LATE TUE. OTHERWISE, THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
MON, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON
SAT, THEN BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH SUN. SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM IVO WILL PEAK ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA SUR AND THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, AND THEN QUICKLY FADE BY LATE SAT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WHERE SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 04N, WHILE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF 04N. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 8 FT IN
NEW SW SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PERIOD, MAINLY AT NIGHT. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
NORTH OF 04N THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOUTH OF 04N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. NEW
CROSS- EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE FADING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA
NEAR 41N139W EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO 118W, AND DRAPES ACROSS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HENRIETTE, LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 20N144W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
HENRIETTE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
NORTH OF ABOUT 16N AND WEST OF 130W. SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE
6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED EAST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 101W AND 132W, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO
9 FT. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO
7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED EAST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
SUBSIDE EARLY SAT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM IVO WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 20.7N 113.2W SAT MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT
GUSTS 65 KT, THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
21.0N 114.7W SAT EVENING, TO NEAR 21.5N 116.5W SUN MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. IVO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 21.9N 118.6W SUN
EVENING, TO NEAR 22.1N 120.7W MON MORNING, THEN WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.1N 123.0W MON EVENING. IVO IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE LATE TUE. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH MON.
FRESHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
AGUIRRE
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