023
WTPZ44 KNHC 090839
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST SAT AUG 09 2025
IVO IS HAVING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0412 UTC SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE
SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED
IN RECENT HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR
THIS CYCLE.
THE STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE IVO IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE POSITIONED
TO ITS NORTH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED POLEWARD THIS CYCLE,
AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF TO ITS SOUTH AND THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS AID
TVCE TO ITS NORTH.
IVO IS CURRENTLY CROSSING A COOLING GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND MOVING TOWARDS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UNTIL IT
BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER BASED
ON THE DECREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 20.6N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.3N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 21.7N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 11/1800Z 22.1N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 22.2N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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