935
AXPZ20 KNHC 091004
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 112.4W OR ABOUT 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT AT 09/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO
50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 18
FT (5.5 M) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN OVERNIGHT 0422Z ASCAT SATELLITE
DATA PASS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY
SMALL, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING OUTWARD TO
30 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF
A LINE FROM 20N109W TO 22N109W. A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY SUN NIGHT. SWELL GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN ADDITION, PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
AND THE LATEST IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 125W FROM 03N TO 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS 09N TO 11N AND WEST OF THE WAVE TO 127W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NW COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANAMA AND TO 09N84W TO
09N90W TO 08N100W TO 12N110W TO 12N120W TO 08N130W AND TO
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 112W-115W, FROM 12N TO 16N WEST OF 138W,
ALSO WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-127W AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 98W-105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE REGION ALONG 140W, AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 118W AND TO THE NW OF IVO.
OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS OF BAJA NORTE, WITH WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 10
KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA SUR. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE
BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE OFF OF BAJA, EXCEPT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6 TO
9 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 5 TO 7
FT, AND ARE REACHING THE COASTS OF NAYARIT AND SINALOA. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO
ANGEL, WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL ACROSS
THESE AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 20.9N 113.4W
THIS AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 21.3N 115.1W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT, TO NEAR NEAR 21.7N 117.1W SUN
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 22.0N
119.3W LATE SUN NIGHT MON MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR
22.1N 121.5W MON AFTERNOON, AND MOVE TO NEAR 22.2N 123.7W LATE
MON NIGHT. IVO WILL DISSIPATE LATE TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON,
ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS
THROUGH SUN. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA
SUR AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUBSIDE TODAY.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 04N, WHILE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
SOUTH OF 04N. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 8 FT IN
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SOUTHWEST SW SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE
NICARAGUA MON NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 04N THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF 04N, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE
FADING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 THAT IS
CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N139W EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 118W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL REGIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W
AND NORTH OF 20N WEST OF ABOUT 138W. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES
ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NORTHEAST SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W AND 133W AS DEPICTED IN OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO
9 FT OVER THIS AREA. THESE SEAS ARE FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC
LONG- PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO, SEAS
ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 8 TO 9 FT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AFTER ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY SWELL MERGES WITH THESE SEAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM IVO
HAS IT MOVING TO NEAR 20.9N 113.4W THIS AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 21.3N
115.1W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55
KT, TO NEAR NEAR 21.7N 117.1W SUN AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME POST-
TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 22.0N 119.3W LATE SUN NIGHT MON
MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.1N 121.5W MON AFTERNOON,
AND MOVE TO NEAR 22.2N 123.7W LATE MON NIGHT. IVO WILL DISSIPATE
LATE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH MON.
AGUIRRE
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