482
WTPZ44 KNHC 091440
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM MST SAT AUG 09 2025
IVO IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WITH ITS
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5/55 KT AND 3.0/45 KT,
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM
35-55 KT. IVO'S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT, LEANING TOWARD THE
BLEND OF CI NUMBERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS IN 12-24 HOURS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE AND MORE CONVERGENT ALOFT. AS A
RESULT, STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND IVO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE REMNANT LOW
WILL LAST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AFTER THAT, LIKELY OPENING UP INTO A
TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IVO'S POSITION WAS ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH BASED ON RECENT DATA, WHICH
ENDED UP SHIFTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK IN THAT DIRECTION AS
WELL. STILL, THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IVO WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD, STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND TVCE
CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 21.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 21.4N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 21.9N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 22.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 22.6N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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