108
AXPZ20 KNHC 091555
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 112.7W AT 1500 UTC, OR
ABOUT 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO
60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 18 FT (5.5 M).
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SMALL, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTENDING OUTWARD TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM ACROSS THE S
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING. IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUN EVENING.
SWELL GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE FADING. THESE SWELLS WILL GENERATE LARGE AND
POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN
ADDITION, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS AROUND 125W FROM 05N TO 19N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
09.5N77W TO 08N89W TO 13N111W TO BEYOND 11.5N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N EAST OF
92W, FROM 06N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 94.5W AND 107W, FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 108W AND 119W, AND FROM 06N TO 13N WEST OF 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 139W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 116W AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF IVO. OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA NORTE. MODERATE TO FRESH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA SUR. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE
BAJA NORTE WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ELSEWHERE
OFF OF BAJA, EXCEPT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR WHERE
SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO. MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT. SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM IVO IS QUICKLY FADING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF,
WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 4 TO 6 FT, AND ARE REACHING THE
COASTS OF MAINLAND MEXICO. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE FROM COLIMA TO PUERTO ANGEL, WHILE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
21.4N 113.8W THIS EVENING, REACH NEAR 21.9N 115.7W SUN MORNING,
REACH NEAR 22.4N 117.6W SUN EVENING AS A 35 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW,
THEN REACH NEAR 22.6N 119.7W MON MORNING AS A REMNANT LOW, THEN
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE, THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON,
ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS
THROUGH SUN. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA
SUR AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SUBSIDE TODAY.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OF 04N,
WHILE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 04N. SEAS ARE 4
TO 6 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC
SOUTHWEST SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH E TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MON EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 04N THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF 04N, GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE FADING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
A RIDGE, ANCHORED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 THAT IS
CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 43N139W EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 116W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN
THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL REGIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND
140W AND NORTH OF 20N WEST OF ABOUT 138W. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES
ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NORTHEAST SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 120W AND 133W AS DEPICTED IN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OVER THIS AREA.
THESE SEAS ARE FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SOUTHERLY SWELL.
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT
RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 8 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY SWELL
MERGES WITH THESE SEAS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST NHC FORECAST
ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM IVO HAS IT MOVING TO NEAR 21.4N 113.8W
THIS EVENING, REACH NEAR 21.9N 115.7W SUN MORNING, REACH NEAR
22.4N 117.6W SUN EVENING AS A 35 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW, THEN REACH
NEAR 22.6N 119.7W MON MORNING AS A REMNANT LOW, THEN CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY WED. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF
120W THROUGH MON.
STRIPLING
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