722
WTPZ44 KNHC 092038
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 PM MST SAT AUG 09 2025
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DISPLACING MOST OF IVO'S CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE CENTER, AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS ITSELF HAS BEGUN TO
SHRINK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON A T3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, AND THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 38 KT (BUT IS LIKELY LIMITED
BY THE INSTRUMENT'S RESOLUTION). CONTINUED MODERATE SHEAR,
GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A STABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF IVO ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND. GFS-
AND ECMWF-BASED SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ALL DEEP CONVECTION
DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS, WHICH IS WHEN IVO IS SHOWN DEGENERATING
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DISSIPATION IS NOW
EXPECTED BY DAY 3, WHICH IS WHEN THE REMNANT LOW LOSES ITS
INTEGRITY IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS.
IVO HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD, OR 280/6 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IVO ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
MODELS, AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEW NHC
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 21.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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