936
AXPZ20 KNHC 092117
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 2100 UTC, OR
ABOUT 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 16 FT (4.5 M).
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AFTERNOON ASCAT DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY SMALL, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTENDING OUTWARD TO 30-40 NM FROM THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM NORTH AND 60
NM SOUTH OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W. A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING. IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
MIDNIGHT SUN AS IT REACHES NEAR 118.5W. SWELL GENERATED BY IVO
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE FADING. THESE
SWELLS WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO LARGE, POWERFUL SURF AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN ADDITION, PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS AROUND 126W FROM 05N TO 19N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
10.5N74.5W TO 08N90W TO 14N111W TO 08.5N131W TO BEYOND
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03.5N TO 09N EAST OF 89W, FROM 06N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 89W AND
99W, FROM 06.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 108W, FROM 10N TO 16.5N
BETWEEN 106W AND 121W, AND FROM 06.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 124W AND
136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 138W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 116W AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF IVO. OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM BAJA SUR TO THE CORE OF IVO.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE
WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ELSEWHERE OFF OF
BAJA, EXCEPT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR WHERE SEAS ARE
6 TO 9 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM IVO HAS FADED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF, WHERE SEAS ARE
4 TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUERTO ANGEL, WHILE MODERATE
NORTH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN SW
SWELL ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
REACHING NEAR 21.4N 114.7W AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, REACH NEAR
22.0N 116.5W MIDDAY SUN, REACH NEAR 22.4N 118.5W MIDNIGHT SUN
EVENING AS A 30 KT POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW, THEN CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD, FINALLY DISSIPATING TUE
AFTERNOON NEAR 125W. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL
DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS LATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON.
SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO ACROSS THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL FADE TONIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF
06N, WHILE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 06N. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC
SW SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, E TO SE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WIL FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
06N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF 06N, GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE FADING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 43N138W ANCHORS A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 116W, TO THE NORTHWEST OF IVO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN
THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL REGIONS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES FROM 12N TO 26N BETWEEN
125W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MERGING NE AND SW
SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 115W
AND 130W. RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS OF 7 TO
9 FT IN SW SWELL OVER THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO,
SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 7 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY SWELL
MERGES WITH THESE SEAS THIS EVENING. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
FOR TROPICAL STORM IVO SHOWS IT MOVING TO NEAR 21.4N 114.7W
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, REACH NEAR 22.0N 116.5W MIDDAY SUN,
REACH NEAR 22.4N 118.5W MIDNIGHT SUN EVENING AS A 30 KT POST-
TROPICAL REMNANT LOW, THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING
WESTWARD, FINALLY DISSIPATING TUE AFTERNOON NEAR 125W.
ELSEWHERE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH TUE.
STRIPLING
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