525
WTPZ44 KNHC 100232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 PM MST SAT AUG 09 2025
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT THE CYCLONE'S OVERALL APPEARANCE HASN'T
CHANGED DRASTICALLY. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS STILL 45 KT, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT
UW-CIMSS SATCON, VALID AROUND 2210 UTC (43 KT). THEREFORE, NO CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE 45-KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO ANY ASPECT OF THE NHC FORECAST.
IVO IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, AS SHOWN BY ALL OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS,
ECMWF AND HAFS MODELS INDICATES IVO WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN
ABOUT 36 H. IVO'S MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, STILL AT 6 KT.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT IVO WILL GRADUALLY TURN DUE
WEST IN A DAY OR TWO AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE MODEL FORECAST AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD WITH RESPECT TO ALL
ASPECTS OF IVO'S EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 21.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.7N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 22.8N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 23.0N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 23.1N 124.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page