029
WTPZ44 KNHC 100834
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
200 AM MST SUN AUG 10 2025
IVO IS WEAKENING WHILE IT PASSES OVER THE COOLER WATERS WELL TO THE
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
IS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. DATA FROM AN
EXCELLENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS JUST BEFORE 0500 UTC SHOWED THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB, ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES FROM
UW-CIMSS GAVE A SIMILAR INTENSITY ESTIMATE, INDICATING THAT IVO IS
NOW AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR AT ABOUT 285/7 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IVO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN MORE WESTWARD WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN A DAY OR SO AS THE INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IVO IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE, AND
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 21.5N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 22.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 23.1N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page