946
AXPZ20 KNHC 100953 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 114.1W, OR ABOUT
255 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AT 10/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 15 FT
(4.5 M). LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IVO REMAINS A SMALL
CYCLONE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND NW QUADRANTS AND WITHIN
90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT. IVO IS FORECAST TO MAKE
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW WEAKENING
IS ANTICIPATED. IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN ADDITION, PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
THE LATEST IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 128W FROM 04N TO 17N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N72W WESTWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, TO 11N86W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N92W TO
09N100W AND TO 12N109W. IT RESUMES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF IVO AT
14N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
124W-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 130W-134W, WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 93W-98W, AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
101W-108W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 138W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 116W AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF IVO. OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS FROM BAJA SUR TO THE CORE OF IVO.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE
WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ELSEWHERE OFF OF
BAJA, EXCEPT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA SUR WHERE SEAS ARE
6 TO 9 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM IVO. MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUERTO ANGEL,
WHILE MODERATE NORTH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5
TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL ACROSS THESE AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST IVO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
21.7N 115.4W SUN MORNING, TO NEAR 22.4N 117.3W SUN EVENING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW NEAR 22.8N 119.4W MON MORNING, THEN MOVE TO NEAR 23.0N 121.6W
MON EVENING, TO NEAR 23.1N 124.1W TUE MORNING, AND DISSIPATE TUE
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS LATE SUN THROUGH LATE MON. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
IVO ACROSS THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL FADE TONIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF
06N, WHILE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF 06N. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC
SW SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, E TO SE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
NORTH OF 06N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF 06N, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FADING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CORRECTED
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 44N139W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE TO ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 116W, TO
THE NORTHWEST OF IVO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND IN THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL
REGIONS IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST
TRADES FROM 12N TO 26N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7
FT IN MERGING NE AND SW SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 114W AND 130W. LATEST SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL OVER THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM IVO, SEAS ARE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 7 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER ADDITIONAL SOUTHERLY SWELL
MERGES WITH THESE SEAS THIS EVENING. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
FOR TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECASTS IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR TO NEAR 21.7N 115.4W SUN MORNING, TO NEAR 22.4N
117.3W SUN EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45
KT, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.8N 119.4W MON MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT, THEN MOVE TO NEAR
23.0N 121.6W MON EVENING, TO NEAR 23.1N 124.1W TUE MORNING, AND
DISSIPATE TUE EVENING NEAR 125W. ELSEWHERE, THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND WEST
OF 120W THROUGH TUE.
AGUIRRE
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