839
AXPZ20 KNHC 101004
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM IVO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 114.9W AT 10/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 15 FT (4.5
M). LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IVO REMAINS A SMALL
CYCLONE, AND THAT ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING. THE
IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.
AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS METOP-B ASCAT PASS NICELY CAPTURED IVO'S
ENTIRE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF ITS
CENTER POSITION. IVO IS FORECAST TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND
IVO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. IN ADDITION, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
IVO NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 130W FROM 03N TO 16N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10.5N72W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, AND TO 10N85W, TO
TO 10N89W TO 08N92W TO 09N97W TO 09N103W AND TO 12N109W. IT
RESUMES SOUTHWEST OF IVO AT 14N121W TO 09N130W TO 07N136W TO
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W-86W AND WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 107W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 121W-123W, ALSO
FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W-140W, WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-127W, AND WITHIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 84W-88W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM IVO.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ALONG 138W,
EXTENDING A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 116W AND TO THE NORTHWEST
OF IVO. OUTSIDE OF IVO, GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO
EAST OF IVO TO NEAR 113W, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS ARE BETWEEN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 113W. SEAS
ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS
AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL ELSEWHERE OFF OF BAJA,
EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO BETWEEN 113W AND SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN SOUTHERLY GENERATED
BY IVO. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO
5 FT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE FROM CABO
CORRIENTES TO PUERTO ANGEL, WHILE MODERATE NORTH WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL ACROSS THESE
AREAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, IVO WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
22.0N 116.3W THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT
GUSTS TO 40 KT, THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO NEAR 22.7N
118.3W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35
KT, MOVE TO NEAR 23.0N 120.5W MON AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 23.1N 122.9W
LATE MON NIGHT, TO NEAR 23.0N 125.2W TUE AFTERNOON, AND
DISSIPATE LATE TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL DIMINISH
TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN BECOME FRESH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS THU AND THU NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
NORTH F 06N, WHILE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF
06N. SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT NORTH OF 04N, AND 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SW SWELL SOUTH OF 04N.
FOR THE FORECAST, E TO SE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WILL FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
NORTH OF 06N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH OF 06N, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SW
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE FADING EARLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
ON TROPICAL STORM IVO.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N139W. A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE TO ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 116W, TO THE NORTHWEST OF IVO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE
PRESENT TO ITS SOUTH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADES FROM ABOUT 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 134W AND
140W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 114W AND 130W.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA REVEALS SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN
SW SWELL OVER THIS AREA. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IVO, SEAS ARE
MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL.
THE 7 TO 9 FT SEAS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH MON. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY FOR IVO
FORECASTS IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO NEAR 22.7N
118.3W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35
KT, MOVE TO NEAR 23.0N 120.5W MON AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 23.1N 122.9W
LATE MON NIGHT, TO NEAR 23.0N 125.2W TUE AFTERNOON, AND
DISSIPATE LATE TUE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF
120W THROUGH TUE.
AGUIRRE
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