617
WTPZ44 KNHC 101435
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2025
IVO IS MAINTAINING A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION, NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT HOLDING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WHILE ALSO CONTENDING WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND
WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IVO SHOULD LOSE ALL ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24
HOURS, AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH IN
60 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST (290/9
KT). LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP IVO ON A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A FAIRLY STEADY SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS WELL WITHIN
THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 21.9N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 23.2N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 23.2N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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